tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC August 18, 2016 5:00am-6:01am EDT
good morning. divided minutes suggest a split view on rate hike. the call of the consumer. ready to roll out quarterly results. plus trouble in rio. two u.s. swimmers pulled off u.s. pound return flight. this is brazil investigates a reported robbie targeting ryan lochte and his teammates. it's thursday, august 18, 2016 and "world wide exchange" begins right now.
>> good morning and welcome to "world wide exchange" on cnbc. i'm sara eisen. >> and i'm wilfred frost. good morning to you from me as well. throw back thursday. some winning olympic spirit. these are the words i can see, but it's not a classic sporting song. >> it's about winners. u.s. has been winners in this olympic games. let's check out the markets this morning. show you with where we are. flat to positive yesterday after stock traded lower most of the day. looks like we're mixed again this morning. little moves here. dow up two points. s&p, futures up almost a point and the nasdaq is lower by negative 2 points. we have not seen a plus or negative 1% move on the stock market in 28 days. looks like the pattern is set to continue this morning. >> we had one .5% move this week which was wow. >> that was the biggest move in
two weeks. yesterday another flat session. as for the ten-year treasury note yield, yields have been increasing. certainly off the lows and into the mid 150s. they backed off a bit. there has been buying over the last 24 hours or so of treasuries. we have been in a range of 150 to 158 or so. >> the minutes have offset the prior days more hawkish fed commentary. as we sit here today, it's a similar position to where we were a week and a month ago. december is on the table looking possible, but not likely. >> september is on the table. there's some members that wanted a hike in july. some members are ready though see what happens with the at the and some would like to see higher inflation for a prolonged peefrd. we have a split nonconsensus fed who is going to leave the options open. >> but move towards a more hawkish comment and then the minutes slightly offset that.
we're not in any different position. now breaking economic news out of europe in the last half hour. retail sales jumping 1.4% last month. much higher than expected. sterling has jumped on the news suggesting of course the economy is doing better than expected. we don't need as much easing as previously thought. see the bound jumping. 1.31. one of the headlines out of this is that beers and barbecues are more important than brexit. people spending money in july. the other point to note in fact is luxury sales did well. just highlighting one of those offsetting factors of the currency. >> i did have one day to shop and that weaker pound, let me tell you, before they started raising prices was helpful. >> there we go. of course it was. >> that's how you explain the 1 mkt higher in retail sales.
>> certainly that's a factor and important to note because clearly the pound responding. let's have a look at what that means for the ftse 100 and european equities as you can see up around .20%. germany dax up .5%. it was over 1% yesterday. soft week for european equities. it has been a strong month for european equities. it's also been a strong month for asian equities and a soft week, similarly. in asia the trade data came out. that's the worst decline in 7 years. though it matched expectations, imports fell 25%. more than common economists forecast. there are signs of some slow down in various areas, but as you can see, that trade data of japan the maintain factor.
weight on the nikkei to the tune of 1.5% this morning. >> the dollars got a bit weaker after the fed minutes yesterday. really little change though. the euro stronger this morning against the dollar. 1.1323. it has been inching higher. it's been a story of a weaker u.s. dollar. even with the hawkish commentary earlier in the week. the currency wasn't convinced. the dollar has been weak all week long. no expectations that interest rate is coming any time soon. weaker against the japanese yen. that is one to watch. we hover around the 100 level again. that critical level we broke through that earlier in the week suggesting yen strength potentially more of a u.s. dollar weakness story though so the currency strategists have been down playing the idea that the japanese authorities would intervene to step in and actually sell the yen and get it weaker. wait to see what happens with the u.s. dollar. they want to make sure the yen is stronger against other currencies like the chinese
currency and korean and all their other trading partners. as for the pound, stronger on the back of retail sales. as for oil prices which have been stronger. they just crossed over 47. we're still in this range where we have been, but it is a a lot stronger than where were the week before last where we were back into bear market for oil. we'll see what the producers or don't agree to when it comes to production. wti up .5%. brent is downgoing the other way about .25%. 49.74. as for gold, stronger on the u.s. dollar. it is higher again this morning by about five bucks. gold at 1353. >> the yen is something to keep focus on, but the comments yesterday he said the focus on the global agenda is the
japanese bond market as opposed to the currency we have seen yields start to tick back up again in japan. not because we expect less action from the bank of japan in terms of their commitment to easing, but because people are losing confidence that the bank of japan can do anything at all. he doesn't expect further moves of negative rates because the bank of japan has realized that's not working. now thought they may want to ease and continue the monetary stimulus. there's less to do. >> because confidence and credibility is everything for central banks in the markets and that's why we parse the fed minutes and that's why in the wake of the fed minutes, for is some confusion for stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities when it comes to pricing assets on what the fed is looking for specifically. yes, data dependent is one thing, but give us a little sense of what that means. what sort of inflation number do you want to see and how long.
they've left it open. on one sense is good they're having a healthy debate and they're flexible. makes it confusing. questions of credibility and efficacy are very much alive. >> the focus less on bank minutes and more on earnings. walmart reporting after the bell. as for data, weekly jobless claims due at 8:30 eastern. at the same time be on the lookout for philadelphia fed survey. john williams will offer his economic outlook. >> we mentioned walmart earnings. that is the big of the day. second quarter results before the bell. this amid a pretty confusing picture of consumer and retail. landon dowdy joins us with three things to watch. >> that's right. walmart often seen as a accurate measure of the health of the consumer and economy is expected to post 1.02 and revenue of $120
billion, but beyond the numbers here are the three key things to watch. first sales and forecast, the retailer expecting same store sales to rise for the eighth quarter in a row while foot traffic is likely to continue upward trend. slight upgrade in outlook. the world's largest retailer is trying to improve fresh food supply chain. fresh food has been a long time struggle for the retailer. meaningful shift in grocery there. and third thing to watch online. lackluster year of online sales growth announced buying jet.com. and the move coming as walmart wants to become a more serious competitor to amazon. shares are up 16% over the past three months. back over to you. >> landon, thank you very much for that. in other corporate news this morning, we're watching shares of cisco. the company posting better than expected earnings and revenues, but guidance was cautious.
earnings outlook is shy of analyst's estimates. planning to cut 3500 jobs. this comes as switches focus from hardware to higher margin software. cisco ceo will join squawk on the street later this morning. that's at 9:00 a.m. one not to miss. interesting also there were some specific comments from chuck robins around brexit saying clarity of a timeline could help h. criticizing the lack of timeline companies have gotten off the back of the vote. >> cisco is a good bram terre of spending. said customers paused in uk. not so much in europe. also struggling in emerging markets as well. just on the job cuts, this continuing evolution of some of these old tech brands to shift from pc hardware too faster growing software and cloud. more job losses of course. it's terrible news for the workers.
it was a little less than some reports all tday indicated 14,00 jobs. this is i believe the first one under chuck robins. it will be very interesting to hear from him. why now are they getting ahead of some weakness, right sizing business, and what sort of progress are they making on the faster growing segments because their clearly still dependent on the legacy business. >> absolutely. other stocks to watch today, l brand, owner of victoria's secret posting better than expected revenue. the company raising full year guidance. shares up 3% premarket. net app looks to be a winner today. beating the street on the top and bottom lines. results driven by cost cutting helped offset a drop in revenue. different story at agilent. shares drop. company lowering annual profit and forecast.
that's pressuring the stock. some more stocks to watch, gannett is -- nestle posting weaker than expected first earnings. slowing due to price pressures. other thing they said as a result of brexit we're going to seal increase in chocolates in the uk. that's the consequence of brexit. >> because of the pound. >> because of the pound. chock flation. >> solar city pans to cut costs. slashing ceo salary. deals with a weaker outlook for solar installations. tesla is in the process of buying that company. solar city down in the
premarket. when we come back, japanese stocks dropping overnight on trade data and a stronger yen. we'll talk about the factors at play, next. this is a much better olympics related winning song. we also get queen, we are the champions later. >> that's a good one. hong kong up 1%. that market has been on fire. we'll dive deeper into the asian session and some of the data you need to know when "world wide exchange" comes right back. >> you don't care about the music when there's a sign of asian markets to talk about. i was trying to change the topic, but no, couldn't listen to it. our first facebook and twitter question of the day, what your favorite olympic moment has been so far. send us an idea. we'll read some of the responses later. doesn't have to be team usa. >> no, any team, any athlete. >> first one up, moe far ra.
welcome back to "world wide exchange." if you're just getting up, let's get you up to speed on the market. futures are basically flat. of course it is august. we're seeing lower volumes. we were hitting new all-time highs. we had that half a percent or so decline one day, but essentially otherwise it's been broadly flat
for the markets this week. yesterday we rallied after the fed minutes were a little more dubbish than expected and that took us to flat. we're called flaxly higher for the dow s&p, but basically flat as you can see. let's look at oil quickly. that's been an important factor. today higher. slightly lower for brent. early european trade is positive. it's been a soft week. we were down 1.5% as a whole. just recovering some of that as you can see. the dax up a half of one percent. >> market moving data out of japan and china overnight. joins us from singapore with the highlights of that economic data and market action. good morning. >> good morning sara. the trade data was bleak especially on the export side. today dollar yen, we've been bim lk around the level of the century market.
no great shakes on either side of the equation. the important line to draw is what is the pain threshold for corporate japan and especially exports could probably handle these kind of levels. can handle appreciation, but won't that won't be able to handle any levels below that, around 85, 90 is really the pain threshold. nikkei damage done because of yet appreciation. down 1.6%. wanted to highlight the hang sang. largely because of this index heavy weight. it's not a rap artist. it's not the most valuable chinese internet firm outpacing that effort. they are king of the hill there. they reported second quarter earnings. they really knocked it out of the park when mobile gaming and portfolio. product pipeline. strong move in tencent today. that's where we stand, back to
what's your favorite olympic moment so far? >> you know what, wilfred, it's team refugee. this is a group of sportsman who as they name implies from sudan, they are refugees from other countries where they have fled. and this is the first time in olympic history in which they have competed and there's a real hunger. there's a real determination. there's a real drive. there's a kid from syria. an amazing girl who towed her boat across the water towards greece. she's a camp champion swimmer d her parents proud and absolutely tremendous story. >> wilfred was thinking more belly flops into the pool. >> we can't argue his response. we agree. >> britain isn't doing bad either. second in the medal total. >> indeed they are.
thank you for that update from asia. still to come on "world wide exchange," golden moments. highlights from last night's olympics, including team usa sweeping the women's 100 meter hurdles for the first time ever. gold, silver, and bronze. as we head to break, here is the national forecast from whether channel, general carfagno. >> good morning we still have rain in parts of the south. picked up another two inches plus in baton rouge. setting us up for our wettest august on record, but any month and there is more rain in the forecast for today. tough for the folks in the louisiana. now thunderstorms are going to be on the move. see that firing across the northern plains. hail damages winds. that's a big front. that's a big weather maker, but going to bring some thunderstorms. plus in the southwest so dry and so warm. temperatures again today where where he continue to watch the blue cut fire sore near the triple digits and the dry
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13 people have died thus far. we are also following a developing story out of southern california. thousands of homes remained threatened by fast moving fire. already scorched 20,000 acres while flames continue to spread. able to reopen a crucial stretch of highway. authorities say nearly 35,000 homes and 80,000 people are being affected by evacuation warnings. now to the olympic updates. team usa continues to dominate medals in rio, but away from the games, there's some serious questions and controversy that continues to swirl surrounding four members of the u.s. swim team who say they were robbed at gunpoint by men posing as police. live at olympic park in morning. what's the update on this one, jay. >> reporter: at this point we know two u.s. swimmers have had
passports confiscated at tensions continue to climb between the athletes and brazilian officials here. after being pulled from their flight hope, expected to answer more questions from detectives later today. teammate jimmy is also cooperating with investigators who say inconsistencies in the swimmers stories about being robbed at gunpoint by men posing as police. police had also hoped to talk to ryan lochte who was involved in the incident, but he's already returned to the u.s. >> the first sweep in this event in olympic history. >> reporter: to the games now and there's no controversy when it comes to the women's 100 meter hurdle. taking gold, silver, and bronze. >> we came into together as girls. women and girl power. >> reporter: a powerful performance also helped the americans finish one and two in the long jump. track and field continues today
along with semifinal games for the heavily favored u.s. women and basketball and volleyball. >> and also today usain bolt back on the track running the 200. his favorite race and heavily favored to win the second gold of the games. as for the swimmers here, one quick note, the u.s. consulate state department and all involved as this continues. >> back to you. >> on that note, is it normal the swimmers would have been heading home already. there's no suggestion they were getting out quicker than expected. >> no, in fact athletes when they finish the competition here have the option to go home. they can stick out in rio, but they do check out of athletes village. a lot go home. usually staying for the closing ceremony. >> big focus, much more important on usain bolt today, is there a lot of excitement around that event as there was for the 100 meters. >> i would think so. it is swirling right now. not only because this is his
favorite race and he has the potential to break a world record, it's going to be tough. because this is the second part of a triple play he hopes to carry out here. three gold medals in three consecutive olympics. it would be amazing to see. >> also he makes the dpraet faces after the runs. that smile people are talking about. jay, thank you. >> yes. >> bring us another uniform tomorrow. jay gray reporting from rio. coming up this mornings top stories. >> i wanted to chat more olympics. >> it's our twitter and facebook question. we have more time for that. >> you'll allow me to talk about it a little bit later. >> we have some pictures coming your way. we're dpoirng to be joined by former white house political director for ronald reagan to find out what frank lavn is crossing party lines to support hillary clinton. we'll talk about the economic policies ats pl play, next.
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good morning. earnings test for the markets. walmart's quarterly results. your money, your vote. this year's presidential election, anything, but normal. we'll talk about unusual fellows straight ahead. plus a not so happy meal. while mcdonald's is pulling a toy from its counters. it's thursday, august 18, 2016 and you're watching "world wide exchange". good morning and welcome to "world wide exchange" on a thursday. i'm sarp ra eisen. i'm wilfred frost.
that song cannot fail to wake you up. >> motivate you. >> exactly right. it is throw back thursday. we're throwing it back with some winning olympic spirit. keep it playing. as we check on the global markets this morning. they are not inspired by this music. we have seen it like this pretty much every day this week, but i am excited about it because the music is so inspiring. the nasdaq slightly low. this is essentially what we saw by the end of trade yesterday. the fed was a little more dubbish than expected. that brought markets back to end the day flat. european trade, much more muted now the music has stopped is in fact positive. more inspiring than the u.s. futures, but lacking music. the dax up half a percent. >> as for asia overnight a bright spot in hong kong. japan closes lower by 1.5 on the back of a stronger japanese yen.
and the shanghai comp closing lower. as for the broader market, there's been more action here in commodities and currencies. wti crude strong. crossing the 47 market. 47 .03. brent interestingly going the other way. we'll see if wti can hang on to gains. it is lower this morning, but it is still firmly above 49. >> as for ten-year treasury note yield. noncommittal after dudly more hawkish comments the fact is the fed is going to wait to see how the data plays out and leave the options open to see if it's going to raise interest rates in september which the market is not pricing in or december which is market is not pricing in as well. as for the u.s. dollar, it's been weaker over the course of the last few weeks.
1.13 is the euro dollar. it is stronger against the japanese yen which is notable because the yen weakness has fueled the japd market and the u.s. market so if that maintains that could add to a better tone of today's session. the pound is stronger this morning on the back of retail sales. 1.3160 or so. >> and the nikkei down early today not because of the yen, but disappointing trade data out of japan. quick look at gold prices as we stand this morning are slightly higher to the tune of a quarter of a percent. 1352 the price. walmart reports earnings before the bell. after the close we'll hear from gap. as for data, weekly jobless and philadelphia fed at 8:30. >> among today's stocks to watch, cisco the company posting better than expected earnings and revenue, but it was the guidance that was cautious here.
seeing flat revenue in the current quarter and earnings outlook is shy of analyst estimates. company announcing plans to cut 5500 jobs. that's about 7% of the workforce. this comes as it switches focus from hardware to higher margin and faster growing software. cisco ceo chuck robins will be on to talk about all of it. 9:00 a.m. eastern time. that one dragged the dow down yesterday. it was the worst performer on word of job cuts. they were announced less than expected. that industry magazine saying 9 to 14,000 jobs could be at stake here. it's part of a trend that we have seen. it's not just cisco it's the microsofts and intels and oracles of the world. as they transition and rights side. these are companies with 50 to 100,000 people working at the company and the only other thing i would say about the market this morning is walmart will be a focus.
this caps off what has been a very mixed picture for retail. first the department stores which are still seeing declining sales and therefore sluggish consumer, but much better than expected results and then we had some bright spots in retail like urban outfitters. >> and some of the ones that have been surprised have been off slow expectations. absolutely walmart great gauge. one to watch later. now to politics, this year's race for the white house is not following traditional party lines. joining us now is frank lavin. former white house political director for ronald reagan. >> thanks for having me on. >> tell us a little bit about this idea that a lot of the traditional party lines are being crossed and how it relates to you specifically, your background and what you're deciding about this year's election. >> we are seeing some real changes this year to maybe an unprecedented amount. for me personally, i've spent my
entire life on the republican side as you noted as white house political director under ronald reagan so i voted republican for president for 40 years straight, but this year i'm voting for hillary clinton. inni i think she's got a better approach to america's approach. mr. trump has real implications as a candidate that are going to make it unsuccessful as a president. >> outright in a normal year is she a good candidate in your eyes. >> i had a chance to work together. she is a very capable person. she's very bright. very diligent. very hard working. so she's going to take a very serious approach to that job. absolutely. she brings all sorts of strengths. what i'm interested in now in my current role is she takes a very professional approach to u.s. leadership role in the world. we need to have that projection
in asia if we want to grow our companies, create jobs and continue to exert leadership in this part of the world. >> she's backtracked on tpp and with that pulled away from leadership towards asia that you're talking about, but suggested she's willing to flip-flop on issues based around what's the popular thing to say. >> there are some changes in that record. you're absolutely right. there was the pivot to asia which put more weight on the u.s. role in the pacific after all u.s. is a pacific nation. so i think that's very much in the plus column. yes, i personally was disappointed she pulled back from tpp and in my view going ahead, tpp is the right move for america. that's where we are. we have to take her at her word. she's a professional and she knows what she's saying. no matter where she is on trade and moving american companies ahead, donald trump is that much worse. >> why do you think some of your fellow republicans, those in the establishment and will those at
leadership positions and i point my finger straight to house speaker ryan have not come around and continue to endorse the republican candidate. >> everybody is on their own journey. everyone has to come to terms with themselves. that's how democracy works. for me it was a little easier because i don't hold a formal position in the republican party. i'm not an elected official. for me it wasn't that difficult decision. i just think donald trump is not fit for the office of the presidency in terms of temperament, character, he does not rise to the level of that position. so voting for hillary clinton is not terribly difficult. if i were in elected office, it would be more difficult journey. i suspect some of these people are biting their tongue. >> what would you say to a lot of folks that would use those very descriptions to say hillary clinton is not fit for presidential office the way she handled the e-mails on the private servicer, what she told the american people, the fact that director comey called her out.
i mean, clearly they didn't pursue the case, but they said there was certainly a lack of judgment and a lot of questions about how she handled it and how she continues to handle it. >> look, i think those are all fair comments and every voter has to weigh for himself or herself whether this takes you to vote for hillary clinton or donald trump. for me, here's how i calculated. i had two specific issues i thought were insurmountable for donald trump. bun if he's not a big by gotry. by bi got. unacceptable behavior. the second problem i have with donald trump is his multiple bankruptcy. something wrong with his management and ethics if he has four bankruptcy like that and still scooting around in a
private jet. that's not how i run my business and no wonder americans are skeptical of market economics if they say someone wins on the expense of someone else losing. that's not how the market works. >> frank, thank you very much for joining us this morning. now to our top trending stories. best buy is celebrating 50th birth in a big way. company hosting a special sales event kick can go off on august 22 with the first ever 50 deals were 50 hours event. best buy says most deals will be available in stores and online. i'm sad i'll be away because i'm sure there will be cheap deals there. >> mcdonald's voluntarily pulling the step it activity trackers from the happy meals. the fast food giant making the decision over concerns of skin irritations that may happen from wearing the band. no word on how many customers
have been affected. one parent complained last week her child was burned by the happy meal toy after playing with it for eight minutes. when we come back, today's must reads plus controversy in rio. two u.s. swimmers pulled off that flight. this as brazil investigates an attempted robbery. we'll give you a live update next.
welcome back to "world wide exchange." in the "washington post," we hear from a business leader, titled i've always voted republican until now. this one is from dan agoerson. former chief executive officer of general motors. ran it 2011 to 2014, i believe. when i worked at general motors our global operations comprised more than 100 plants and roughly a quarter million employees and every chief executive job i have had, my team and i spent countless hours analyzing global trends, listening to experts, learning from others and making informed reasoned decisions. trump does none of that. he goes on to say why from a business and economic perspective, mostly, but also from a character perspective and approach to judgment and foreign policy, he cannot go there. more republicans coming out. remind me of the meg whitman
piece. will it influence other ceos that are actually currently in these positions to speak their minds. more so than in the past. >> that probably hurts given he's a businessman he's. proposed cutting corporate tax. my pick is t"the wall street journal" saying trump will be trump. the change in position of the leadership of the campaign. mr. ban nnon wants plt to run t way in the primaries. he hasn't changed from the primaries that he hadn't tried to reach out to skeptical independents and republicans that he hadn't broadened the message, but maybe mr. bannon sees a path of 260 electoral votes that others don't. in one sense you have to applaud the move from mr. trump. he's running on the ticket of saying i'm not going to pivot. i'm not going to do that.
that will appeal to the many voters who are dois pointed. >> is that enough. >> we don't know. >> bannon represents hard right sarah palin type. >> trump is sticking to his guns. i think whatever you believe about those guns, it's applaudable because he's not pivoting. he's not doing something he doesn't believe in. >> right. let's switch focus and head to rio. andrew sorkin joins us with some highlights and previews of the day ahead. >> reporter: huge day here in rio. yesterday, as you know the day was clouded by controversy. this developing story saga overnight about whether ryan lochte and his teammates told the truth about being held at gunpoint took another turn last evening when brazilian authorities pulled two u.s. swimmers off their flights on the way home at the rio airport and questioned them about the alleged incident.
this as nbc matt lower speaking to lochte by phone who continues to insist the story is true. all of this comes against the backdrop of increasing security concerns here in rio. a new report overnight as well that members of team great britain were held at gunpoint and robbed. we're going to have more on this developing story on "squawk box." it is bizarre and it is perhaps the only thing beyond sports that people are talking about. we do have competition to talk about. in the women's 100 meter hurdles final the u.s. swept the top three spots. marking the first sweep of medals in any women's track event in olympic history. >> we came into it together as girls, as women, girl power so we were able to really focus and execute and each do our job and came away victorious. >> reporter: in beach volleyball. held off brazil winning the bronze medal and in the first game of knockout rounds of men's
basketball, beating argentina 105 to 78. advancing to the semifinals on friday when they take on spain. going to have a lot more ahead on "squawk box," including some comments from the rio tourist police about this incident and also what's going on with great britain. i know, wilfred, you're probably concerned about that component of it as well. >> absolutely right. >> a lot going on. it's on the front pages of every paper. >> controversy aside we asked a twitter question in your honor this morning and i'm very curious to hear your perspective. we asked what's been the favorite moment from the olympic games. we're getting great responses and pictures and videos. do you have one? >> favorite moment for me was probably hanging out with kate ledecky over the weekend after she won her gold medal. watching michael phelps. you know was 11:30 at night.
first day i was here watching phelps win gold with his team. final race perhaps of his career. i put that on my list. >> did you see the cupping marks on his chest. >> you could see it all. >> my favorite are the back flips and the tumbling of simone biles and the shots of her caught midair, defying gravity like nothing i've ever seen. >> the golden couple getting married in september. and jason kenny has three gold medaling and collectively they have ten. >> wilfred and i are going to train for synchronized diving in tokyo. >> i'm looking forward to that. can i cover that. >> yes, we're likely to another favorite moment to score as many
points as the russian diver who got zero for his belly flop. >> can i get an interview. >> we'll see. it's going to be a coin toss. coming up a divided fed. minutes from it will latest meeting released yesterday suggesting a split view on when to move. we'll talk about the fight between the hawks and the dubs. michelle gir regard. first in business, worldwide.
am i right? >> you're right, always. >> thank you. >> joining us now is michelle girard. thank you for joining us. >> it's like paint dry with those market. i have to say, we're not ganging up on you, but it hasn't been the most exciting of times. >> i can't argue with you. i'm happy to argue with sara, but i stand correctedly michelle. ly let sara take the next question. >> does it worry you at all that the federal reserve has no consensus and doesn't seem like the chairman we're getting the sense of the chairman vision for when the rate hike is coming and that everybody split and there's no real guidance on when or how this is going to happen. >> i will say i mean it's the fact that the committee is split and this is not necessarily something new, this whole period of time obviously has been for the fed. so challenging and the old rules aren't working. we're feeling their way along.
you have much bigger impact from the global influences. some put weight on that. i think the thing to remember when you have a split committee those of us watching the fed and watching the markets and trying to figure out what the action will be, the only person that matters is the fed chair. what she wants to do is going to determine what the fed does, when the fed acts so when you read these minutes and you see some of the committee wanted to move, some did not, you really because janet yellen is among the most dubbish, you can assume that all of the views expressed by those who don't really feel an urgency to act, that's probably reflective of where she is. i think that to me i took the minutes as saying, okay, for those that don't want to rush to move, probably including the fed chair, there's really no urgency still. >> does it matter even less than it has in the past now. given where interest rates are around the world. given how flat the curve is. and it sort of continues to flatten the long end coming
down. even if we see a quarter point increase on the short end, are we looking at something that's not going to affect stocks at all. >> i agree with you. i mean, i kind of say flippantly from an economist standpoint, if is fed is going to hike once a year or devitwice a year, as los we're not talking about the fed engaging and beginning to start on a more aggressive tightening cycle where then potentially bond markets start to price in a lot more action. equity markets start to anticipate a lot more action. you're right. if the fed were to go in september. the assumption would be they're done for the year. done into next year. at this pace, it doesn't pose a threat. you're exactly right not only in stocks, but in bonds. people need yield. >> so clearly they want to see more evidence they're moving toward their goal of sustained 2% inflation and expectations and an improving job market so
what is your view on both of these factors for the rest of the year. >> i even think they went one step further by saying they want confidence that the economy could withstand a downward shock to demand. so it wasn't even a kind of in my mind like we want to see more of what we've seen, it's almost feels like a little bit higher hurdle and i'm pretty upbeat about the economy. i'm concerned it's vulnerable in here. i share sort of that same concern, which is actually unusual for me because identify been as a rule believing the fed is behind the curve. even i think right now, we seem for vulnerable because we lost some momentum and it doesn't feel like boy if there were a hiccup overseas, it would be okay. >> do you have a favorite olympics moment so far. >> i agree with you. watching the vaulting, watching someone go over the vault. >> thank you for joining us.
good morning. a divided fed. minutes from the last fomc meeting suggest a split view on a rate hike. a quarter point rate hike. global market reaction straight ahead. earning central dow component, walmart expected to report in one hour. we'll tell you what to expect from the retail giant and controversy in rio. two olympic swimmers pulled off their flight home like midnight express. remember on that bus. as investigators look into claims that they were robbed at gunpoint. it's thursday, august 18, 2016 and "squawk box" begins right
now. ♪ ♪ that's great. good morning everybody and welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm becky quick. andrew is reporting live from olympic games. there he is. good morning andrew. we're going to get to andrew in just a minute. >> nice to see you. >> becky, andrew. it's becky. >> it's me, it's me. >> you were gone. >> here. >> let's check the u.s. equity futures at this hour. things are relatively flat. dow futures are down only about 9 points. s&p off less than a point. the nasdaq down by 5. overnight in asia, japan's nikkei fell